Summary of the latest PV industry dynamics and trends as of 2024
The following is a summary of the latest PV industry dynamics and trends as of 2024:
1.The PV market continues to grow
Global installed capacity growth: The global installed capacity of PV power generation continues to grow, and countries have accelerated their investment in solar energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global new installed capacity of PV will reach a new high in 2024, and is expected to exceed 350 gigawatts (GW).
China leads the world: China remains the main force in the global PV industry, accounting for more than half of the global new installed capacity of PV. In 2024, China's cumulative installed capacity of PV is expected to exceed 600GW.
The rise of emerging markets: The demand for PV in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia has increased, and policy support and cost reduction in these regions are the main driving forces.
2.Technological innovation
TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivation contact technology): TOPCon cells have gradually become mainstream, with conversion efficiency reaching more than 24%. Many Chinese companies have already mass-produced and expanded production, and their market share will further increase in 2024.
HJT (heterojunction technology): Heterojunction technology (HJT) has attracted attention for its high efficiency and low temperature coefficient. Although the cost is high, it is expected to decrease with technological improvements and large-scale mass production.
Perovskite battery: There has been a new breakthrough in the research of perovskite Photovoltaic Cells. Its high efficiency and low manufacturing cost are expected, but commercialization still needs time. More pilot projects are expected to be implemented in 2024.
Energy storage + photovoltaic: The combination of photovoltaic and energy storage has become a trend, especially in the field of distributed photovoltaic and microgrid, the demand for Photovoltaic Energy storage systems has surged.
3.Policy and subsidy
China's policy:
County-wide promotion of distributed photovoltaic: Since its launch in 2021, the county-wide promotion plan has entered a deepening stage, and the focus will be on rural areas in 2024.
Carbon neutrality goal drive: China has pledged to achieve carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060. Photovoltaics, as an important part, will continue to receive policy support.
International policy:
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): Continue to provide huge subsidies for domestic photovoltaic manufacturing and installation in the United States, attracting many photovoltaic companies to expand production in the United States.
European "Green Deal": The EU has increased its investment in renewable energy, and photovoltaics have become an important part of the EU's energy transformation.
India's PLI plan: India has launched a production incentive plan to support the development of its local photovoltaic manufacturing industry.
4.Price and supply chain
Silicon material price fluctuations: Silicon material prices fell sharply in the second half of 2023, and prices tended to stabilize in 2024, and Photovoltaic Module prices fell further.
Supply chain optimization: China's integrated photovoltaic industry chain layout has been further improved, and the cost advantage of the entire industry chain from silicon materials, silicon wafers to battery cells and modules is obvious.
Overcapacity concerns: Due to the expansion of a large number of companies, the production capacity of photovoltaic cells and modules may be oversupplied in 2024, and industry competition will become more intense.
5.Distributed photovoltaics and BIPV
Distributed photovoltaics: The demand for household and commercial rooftop photovoltaic systems continues to increase, especially in countries with high electricity prices. China's distributed photovoltaic installed capacity has accounted for more than 50% of the country's new installed capacity.
BIPV (photovoltaic building integration): The demand for BIPV products that combine photovoltaics and buildings has increased, driven by the real estate industry and policy encouragement.
6. Future Outlook
Grid parity era: The cost of photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, and grid parity has been achieved in most parts of the world. The economic efficiency of photovoltaic power generation will be further improved in 2024.
Intelligent development: Intelligent operation and maintenance, fault monitoring and predictive maintenance technologies of photovoltaic power stations are gradually becoming popular.
Energy storage and green hydrogen combination: The combination of photovoltaics with energy storage and green hydrogen is an important direction for the future development of the industry, especially in areas with high penetration of renewable energy.
